Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is expected to report tepid earnings for the quarter ended March 31 2025 (Q4FY25), according to analysts, with steady growth in its telecom and retail arms likely to be offset by softness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment.
The country’s most valuable company is scheduled to announce its Q4FY25 results on April 25.
According to a Bloomberg poll, 16 analysts estimated consolidated revenues of ₹2.42 trillion (up 2.5 per cent year-on-year or YoY) and 10 forecast a net adjusted income of ₹18,517 crore (down 2.5 per cent YoY) for Q4FY25.
The diversified conglomerate has three main business divisions — oil-to-chemicals (O2C), which includes refining, fuel-retailing, and petrochemicals; and two consumer-facing businesses, namely retail and telecom. Besides, there is oil and gas exploration.
Analysts at JP Morgan said in the April 7 report: “We expect RIL to report flattish earnings QoQ (c.₹184 bn): a) O2C earnings can be hurt by the decline in diesel cracks/polyester margins, but can benefit from the (temporary) rupee depreciation during the quarter.”
The research house expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) in telecom to grow by an estimated 15 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by tariff increases earlier in the financial year, while building in 12 per cent Y-o-Y growth in Ebitda in the retail business and stating that retail is the most difficult to anticipate due to recent volatility.
According to analysts at JP Morgan, the consolidated Ebitda for the Mukesh Ambani-run conglomerate is expected to grow 2 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹43,409 crore. It estimates net profit at ₹18,376 crore, a 3 per cent YoY decline in Q4.
On the other hand, Dolat Capital estimates RIL’s Ebitda to decline by 0.9 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹42,144 crore while profit after tax (PAT) may fall 8.4 per cent to ₹17,359 crore.
A key overhang for RIL remains the performance of the O2C segment, in which the margins are likely to be pressured due to rising feedstock prices, particularly a 28 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) jump in ethane prices and declining or flat prices of petrochemicals.
In contrast, Reliance Jio and the retail business are poised to deliver stable performance.
Digital services are expected to post a 17 per cent YoY rise in Ebitda, driven by the full impact of the July 2024 tariff hike, said Kotak Institutional Equities in a note dated April 6.
Reliance Retail is projected to ring in a mid-teens revenue increase with Ebitda growth of about 8 per cent Y-o-Y, stated Dolat Capital.
Goldman Sachs wrote: “We expect RIL’s Q4 core Ebitda to remain largely flat Q-o-Q, but market focus into the quarterly print will likely be more on retail segment growth trends and residual tariff hike driven growth in Jio revenue.”
JP Morgan analysts, led by its head of research, Sanjay Mookim, wrote: “Outcomes at Retail are likely to be the most significant stock driver on results. Growth, say 15 per cent or more, can be a positive surprise. Mid-single-digit outcomes can hurt stocks. A material decline in quarterly capex can also help.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect resumption in earnings momentum in FY26, driven by growth in all segments.
Analysts at Yes Securities in an April note said refining throughput was to increase 3.5 per cent YoY but decrease 1.1 per cent Q-o-Q to 17.7 million tonnes. The gross refining margin was expected at $10.4 per barrel, telecom ARPU (average revenue per user) was to increase to ₹208 and Retail revenue was to grow 7.4 per cent Y-o-Y but decline 8.9 per cent sequentially to ₹82,350 crore with the Ebitda margin at 7.5 per cent. Business Standard