Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd, is expected to have posted a steady performance in the June quarter of FY26, aided by strong subscriber additions and promotional offers during the Indian Premier League (IPL), analysts said.
The company offered a free 90-day JioHotstar subscription and free trials for its fiber broadband and fixed wireless access (FWA) services during the quarter, helping boost user engagement during the June quarter.
Here are the key factors to watch as the telecom operator, along with its parent Reliance Industries Ltd, announces its Q1FY26 results on 18 July:
Profit and earnings
Reliance Jio’s standalone revenue from operations is expected to grow 2.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 16.6% year-on-year (YoY) to around ₹30,900 crore, the average of three brokerage estimates showed. Revenues grew 2.4% sequentially in the March quarter.
The company’s net profit is expected to grow 2.2% on-quarter and 25% on-year to about ₹6,788 crore, according to estimates from two brokerage houses.
“Jio is expected to see the fastest top-line growth, supported by strong net adds,” said Axis Securities in a note dated 7 July.
Jio Platforms, which houses Reliance Industries Ltd’s telecom and digital services business, is expected to report a 3.4% QoQ and 19.4% YoY growth in its revenue to ₹35,147 crore for the June quarter, according to analysts at Axis Securities. Net profit is expected to increase 5.6% QoQ and 30.1% YoY to ₹7,416 crore, it added.
“Standalone Jio Platforms (JPL), which is primarily Jio’s enterprise segment, should continue to see strong growth,” Axis Securities said in the note.
ARPU, subscriber base
For Jio, average revenue per user (ARPU) is likely to be ₹209.3, up 1.6% sequentially, the average of three brokerage estimates shows. ARPU indicates how much money a telecom operator makes on average from each customer per month.
ARPU growth of the company was led by 5G FWA addition and higher number of days during the quarter, according to a note dated 6 July by brokerage house Centrum Broking.
According to data by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai), Jio FWA subscriber base stood at 6.88 million as of May end, thereby capturing 82% market share.
“Jio was on the verge of becoming the largest fixed wireless access (FWA) player globally as of end-May (we estimate it would have overtaken T-Mobile in June),” said analysts at IIFL Securities in a note dated 3 July.
FWA uses 5G networks to provide fast, reliable internet to homes and businesses without needing fibre or cables.
Analysts estimate that the company added 8 million overall wireless subscribers during the quarter, bringing the base to 496 million. The company had added 6.1 million subscribers in the preceding quarter.
In the March quarter earnings release, the company said the new additions were driven by the rebound of mobility additions post-tariff hike and the steady ramp-up of connected homes. However, analysts said the benefit of the July 2024 tariff hike is already reflected in the Arpu.
“Telecom operators took tariff hikes in July 24, and Q4FY25 Arpu largely factors in the entire benefits; impact of SIM consolidation on subscribers should be largely behind,” brokerage house ICICI Securities said in a note dated 8 July.
Centrum Broking said the pricing environment has become more favourable with only 3+1 players (Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio, Vodafone Idea and BSNL) and this was also evident in July 2024 tariff hike by all three leading telcos as the focus shifts towards increasing Arpu to improve overall return on capital employed (ROCE) profile.
“We expect another 12-15% tariff hike by the end of FY26,” analysts at Centrum Broking said in the note.
Ebitda estimates
According to average estimates of three brokerage houses, Reliance Jio’s standalone earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) are expected to grow 3.5% quarter over quarter and 17.9% year over year to ₹16,407 crore owing to the impact of tariff hikes.
“Ebitda margin expected to improve by 20 bps (basis points) QoQ to 53.0%, analysts at Centrum said.
Notably, in March Jio Platforms and its peer Bharti Airtel announced partnership with SpaceX’s Starlink to offer satellite-based high-speed internet services in India. On July 9, Starlink received a final regulatory approval to launch its satellite internet services in the country.
Shares of Reliance Industries were down around 0.11% at ₹1,484 on the BSE in early trade on Thursday in a largely weak market. LiveMint