The Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) and Direct-to-Cellular (D2C) market is entering a transformative phase in 2025, driven by strategic advancements from Apple, SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile, satellite operators, and mobile network operators (MNOs). ABI Research, a global technology intelligence firm, forecasts that the NTN-D2C segment will potentially reach US$25 billion in service revenues by 2035, with over 200 million connections.
“The D2C market is experiencing a seismic transformation, with industry leaders such as Apple, SpaceX, and AST SpaceMobile driving satellite-enabled connectivity into the consumer mainstream,” explains Victor Xu, Industry Analyst at ABI Research. “Apple’s strategic control of 85% of Globalstar’s network capacity is a groundbreaking move, enabling the company to deliver reliable satellite services while laying the foundation for more advanced satellite-based applications across its ecosystem of devices.”
Apple’s partnership with Globalstar, starting with a US$450 million investment in 2022 and an additional US$1.5 billion in 2024, has established Apple as a leader in consumer satellite services. Key features include Emergency SOS, Roadside Assistance, Messages, and Find My App for off-grid sharing. Looking ahead, Apple may introduce tiered satellite messaging and AirTag tracking subscriptions, potentially bundled with Apple One. This partnership aims to extend SatCom capabilities to iPads, Apple Watches, and MacBooks, expanding satellite technology’s reach into outdoor and rugged device markets. This strategic move could also lead to new ruggedized devices designed for extreme environments, aligning with Apple’s ecosystem-driven strategy and positioning the company in emerging markets for satellite-enabled consumer devices.
SpaceX has also emerged as a key player in the D2C space. It deployed over 330 D2C satellites in 2024, using eNodeB modems to enable direct LTE connectivity with smartphones. With partnerships across major MNOs, including T-Mobile, KDDI, Optus, Kyivstar, and Rogers, SpaceX is leading in satellite-to-phone connectivity globally. “SpaceX’s extensive MNO partnerships highlight the growing interest from traditional telecom providers in leveraging satellite solutions to extend their coverage footprint,” Xu notes.
AST SpaceMobile, like SpaceX, has formed partnerships with over 45 MNOs, including AT&T, Vodafone, and Telefónica, covering around 2.8 billion users. These alliances boost AST SpaceMobile’s global scalability. The growth of the D2C market is further supported by regulatory advancements like the FCC’s Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS), enabling satellite operators to use terrestrial spectrum. Partnerships between satellite operators and MNOs, such as SpaceX, T-Mobile, and AST SpaceMobile, will benefit from SCS, allowing seamless satellite-terrestrial network integration and opening new consumer markets and revenue opportunities.
“As we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, the D2C market will continue to evolve,” Xu concludes. “From emergency services to logistics and adventure tourism, satellite-enabled applications are unlocking new possibilities for industries worldwide. This is just the beginning of a transformative era in global communications.” ABI Research